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Fixture Performance – March (and April 1)

Winners & LosersNote: To separate clubs that have improved the same amount, points taken is used.

Everton and West Ham were the most-improved sides in the Premier League in March, taking six more points from their three fixtures than they (or in West Ham’s case, Wolves) did last season.

While the Toffees gained an impressive win against Manchester City, it was actually their wins at home to Reading and Stoke that has seen them improve, having suffered ‘shock’ home defeats to Bolton and Stoke last season. West Ham, meanwhile, secured two victories in three fixtures which Wolves lost last season, with their other fixture being an arguably expected defeat at Chelsea.

QPR also enjoyed a relatively good month, taking six points from four fixtures in which they took only a single point last season – though their wins at Southampton and at home to Sunderland were dampened by defeat at Aston Villa.

March was a volatile month in terms of repeating results from last season, with only Manchester United, Manchester City and Norwich taking the same number of points from their fixtures and only the two Manchester clubs repeating the exact same result in each fixture.

Swansea suffered something of a Carling Cup hangover, as defeats away at West Brom and at home to the two North London clubs – offset slightly by victory over Newcastle – saw them take four points fewer from their fixtures than last season.

Of all the Premier League clubs, Sunderland and Stoke deteriorated the most in March, taking five points fewer from their four fixtures than they did last season – a deterioration that ultimately saw Martin O’Neill lose his job.

Season improvement

We can see how the results in March affect the overall improvement table below:

Improvement TableNote: To separate clubs that have improved the same amount, net spend is used.

After being the two most-improved sides in the Premier League going into March, Swansea and Chelsea drop down three places after a relatively poor month. Liverpool are now the most-improved side in the Premier League, having taken eight more points from their 31 fixtures so far than last season.

As it stands

To show how clubs’ performances to date might impact on their final league position, if they were to repeat their results from last season in their remaining fixtures, the final Premier League table would look like this:

Final Table

Note: To separate clubs on same amount of points, current league position is used.

After taking the maximum nine points from their three fixtures in March, Manchester United remain on course to finish with a Premier League record 96 points. Manchester City are still set to finish with 83 points, assuming that they repeat their win at Old Trafford this month.

Tottenham and Chelsea are still on course to finish in the Champions League places, though with them deteriorating in March and Arsenal, Liverpool and Everton all improving, their lead in the race for the top four has been cut from 13 points to nine and eight points respectively.

The relegation battle remains as close as before, with only three points separating Wigan from bottom club Southampton. However, with regards to the Saints, Blackburn didn’t take any points from their remaining seven fixtures, so it is likely that they will finish on a higher points total than currently predicted. Despite sitting on just 23 points as it stands, QPR and Reading remain on course to finish with 36 and 35 points respectively, as QPR and Bolton took 13 and 12 points from their remaining seven fixtures respectvely last season.

To see how each club has performed over the course of the season so far, go to the ‘Season Comparison’ links at the top of the page and select a club from the drop-down menu.

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Fixture Performance – February

Winners & Losers

Note: To separate clubs that have improved the same amount, points taken is used.

Newcastle, Liverpool and Southampton were the most-improved sides in the Premier League in February, taking 3 more points from their 3 fixtures than they did last season. The Magpies turned a 3-0 defeat to Chelsea last season into a 3-2 win this time around, the Reds gained a point away at the Etihad and 2 more at home to Swansea, while the Saints recorded an impressive win against champions Manchester City.

8 teams took exactly the same number of points from their 3 fixtures last month as last season, with 5 clubs repeating the exact same results in each fixture. Arsenal and Tottenham took the maximum 9 points from their fixtures, dragging once-comfortable Chelseawho took 3 points fewer than last season due to their defeat to Newcastle – into the battle for the Champions League places.

Everton’s hopes of a Champions League place dwindled further in February, with defeats at Old Trafford and Carrow Road seeing them take 2 points fewer from their fixtures than last season.

Of all the Premier League clubs, champions Manchester City deteriorated the most in February, taking 5 points fewer from their 3 fixtures than they did last season. With their inability to repeat wins at home to Liverpool and away at Southampton (they won 4-0 at Blackburn last season) coupled with Manchester United taking 2 more points than last season with their win against Everton, it could be argued that February was the month the title race died.

Season improvement

We can see how the results in February affect the overall improvement table below:

Improvement TableNote: To separate clubs that have improved the same amount, net spend is used.

Swansea are the most-improved side in the Premier League, having taken 9 points more from their 27 fixtures so far than last season. This is all the more impressive when you consider that Michael Laudrup has achieved this with a net spend of -£10m (only Fulham have spent less this season).

Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool are the next most-improved sides, although considering they have been 3 of the biggest spenders in the Premier League this season, it can be argued that significant improvement was to be expected.

Arsenal and Newcastle remain at the bottom of the table, with significant improvement needed in the remaining few months if aims of Champions League and Europa League qualification are to be achieved.

As it stands

To show how clubs’ performances to date might impact on their final league position, if they were to repeat their results from last season in their remaining fixtures, the final Premier League table would look like this:

Final Table

Note: To separate clubs on same amount of points, current league position is used.

Manchester United’s 2-point improvement in February means they are currently on course to regain the title with a Premier League record 96 points. Manchester City’s 5-point deterioration last month, meanwhile, means that they are on course to finish 13 points behind their arch-rivals, even if they repeat their win at Old Trafford in April.

Despite Chelsea taking 3 points fewer than last season from their 3 fixtures in February, both they and Tottenham are currently set to finish 13 points clear of any other challengers in the race for the Champions League places.

The fight to avoid the drop is currently set to go down to the wire, with only 2 points separating Wigan from 18th-placed Aston Villa. Despite their 3-point improvement in February, Southampton remain in the relegation zone, though this is based on Blackburn taking only 4 points from the Saint’s remaining 11 fixtures last season. Despite having only 17 points with 11 fixtures to go, QPR are still not completely out of the race, having taken 14 points from their remaining 11 fixtures last season.

To see how each club has performed over the course of the season so far, go to the ‘Season Comparison’ links at the top of the page and select a club from the drop-down menu.

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Fixture Performance – Week 25

Newcastle and Reading improved the most in Week 25, with the Magpies winning at home against Chelsea and the Royals continuing their good form by beating Sunderland at home – something Bolton were unable to do last season.

West Ham also bettered the result of their relegated counterpart last season by winning 3-1 at home to Swansea, while Liverpool and QPR avoided a repeat of defeats to Manchester City and Norwich.

5 of the 10 fixtures at the weekend finished with the exact same result as last season, with Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham repeating wins against Stoke, Fulham and West Brom respectively and Aston Villa, Everton, Southampton and Wigan all drawing.

Winners & LosersWe can see how these results affect the overall improvement table below:

Improvement TableDespite both taking fewer points than last season at the weekend, Swansea and Chelsea remain the most-improved sides in the Premier League.

Liverpool’s point at the Etihad and West Ham’s win against Swansea sees them climb the table, while Sunderland’s inability to repeat their win at Bolton last season against Reading sees their improvement over the season disappear.

Despite both winning at the weekend, Arsenal and Newcastle remain at the bottom of the table, although Newcastle have taken 5 points more from their last 2 fixtures than last season.

As it stands

To show how clubs’ performances to date might impact on their final league position, if they were to repeat their results from last season in their remaining fixtures, the final Premier League table would look like this:

Final TableManchester City’s inability to repeat last season’s win at home to Liverpool means that – even if they repeat their win at Old Trafford on April 6 – they are currently on course to finish 8 points behind rivals Manchester United.

Despite Chelsea losing to Newcastle at the weekend, both they and Tottenham still hold a significant lead in the race for the Champions League places. Meanwhile, Sunderland are currently set to finish on the same points total and in the same position as last season after failing to beat Reading away.

Reading and West Ham’s wins see them pull further away from the relegation zone, leaving Aston Villa, QPR and Southampton with it still all to do in the race to avoid the drop.

To see how each club has performed over the course of the season so far, go to the ‘Season Comparison’ links at the top of the page and select a club from the drop-down menu.

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Fixture Performance – Week 24

Leaders Manchester United were the main beneficiaries in Week 24, with their 2-1 win at home to Southampton helping to eradicate the memory of their shock 3-2 home defeat to Blackburn last season.

Newcastle‘s win at Aston Villa saw them take 2 more points from Villa Park than last season, alleviating the pressure on manager Alan Pardew and distancing themselves from the relegation battle.

Week 24 also saw teams prevent a repeat of home defeats, with Arsenal, QPR and Norwich holding Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham respectively.

Winners & Losers

We can see how these results affect the overall improvement table below:

Improvement Table

Note: net spend values will be updated after January 31

Chelsea remain the most improved side in the Premier League, despite dropping 2 points away at Reading, while Swansea continue to improve compared to last season after taking a point from the Stadium of Light. Manchester United rise sharply after their win against Southampton, while Liverpool, Tottenham and Sunderland all drop after being unable to repeat their wins from last season.

Despite both improving on last season, Newcastle and Arsenal remain at the bottom of the table, while Southampton drop after being unable to repeat Blackburn’s shock win at Old Trafford last season.

As it stands

To show how clubs’ performances to date might impact on their final league position, if they were to repeat their results from last season in their remaining fixtures, the final Premier League table would look like this:

Final TableNote: handicap for promoted clubs not applied

Manchester United‘s win against Southampton - coupled with Manchester City dropping 2 points at QPR – mean that the Red Devils are currently on course to finish 6 points clear at the top of the table, even if the champions manage to repeat their win at Old Trafford from last season.

Despite both taking fewer points from their fixtures compared to last season, Chelsea and Tottenham remain firmly in the lead in the race for the Champions League places, though Arsenal‘s draw against Liverpool sees them move 1 point closer and their opponents drop 2 points behind.

Their defeat at Old Trafford means that Southampton have currently taken 3 points fewer than Blackburn from their 24 fixtures, although Steve Kean’s side took only 5 points from the Saints’ remaining 14 fixtures.

To see how each club has performed over the course of the season so far, go to the ’Season Comparison’ links at the top of the page and select a club from the drop-down menu.

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Fixture Performance – Introduction & Week 23

Introduction

When it comes to opinions on how Premier League clubs are performing, most are based on whether they have more or less points than at the same stage last season. For example, Liverpool currently have four fewer points than they did after 23 games last season, so it is generally believed that they are not performing as well.

But just comparing where clubs sit in the table at various points through the season doesn’t give a clear indication of how they are progressing. Although a club will have played every other club at least once at this stage, the variation in whether they played home or away means that a straight comparison with last season can be misleading.

A fairer way of assessing performance is to compare their current points totals with those achieved from the corresponding fixtures last season. By doing this for Liverpool, we can see that – far from doing worse – they have actually taken six more points from their 23 fixtures than last season.

LiverpoolNote: for purposes of clarity, ‘game’ refers to comparing the result of game x of each season, while ‘fixture’ refers to comparing the result of the corresponding fixture.

The reason for such disparity between the two methods is that at this stage last season Liverpool had 38 points, while this season they have only 34. However, from this point on the club only won four and drew two of their remaining 15 games. If we look at Liverpool’s remaining fixtures this season, they won seven and drew three of those exact same fixtures last season, which – while far from guaranteed – suggests that they will perform better than last season for the remainder of the season.

For the promoted clubs, we can compare their current points totals with those of the equivalent relegated club last season: champions Reading with Bolton, Southampton with Blackburn and West Ham with Wolves. However, the promoted clubs are aiming to survive, not equal points tallies that led to relegation, so since in the last 10 seasons an average of 37 points has been needed to survive, an increasing handicap is added to each club to signify the additional points needed over the course of the season (West Ham need 12 more points than Wolves’ 25 last season, for example).

Week 23

By comparing current points totals for all 20 clubs, we can identify which clubs have improved the most after 23 fixtures relative to their performance last season:

Improvement TableNote: net spend values will be updated on February 1

Having taken 13 more points from their fixtures than last season, Chelsea are the most improved of all the Premier League clubs. But with a net spend of £74m in the summer and their lowest points total in 10 years last season, it can be argued that significant improvement was to be expected.

Despite spending less than they brought in over the summer, Swansea are the second-most improved side in the Premier League. With this achievement in mind – coupled with their League Cup success – Michael Laudrup must surely be a current favourite for Manager of the Year.

Of all the clubs, Newcastle have performed the worst compared to last season. However, considering they finished an outstanding fifth place last season – and with European football and a long injury list to contend with – it is perhaps unsurprising that they have been unable to reach the same impressive heights this season.

As it stands

To show how clubs’ performances to date might impact on their final league position, if they were to repeat their results from last season in their remaining fixtures, the final Premier League table would look like this:

Final TableNote: handicap for promoted clubs not applied

As it stands, Manchester United are set to reclaim the Premier League title by a single point. However, this is based on Manchester City repeating their win at Old Trafford on April 6, otherwise the Red Devils would likely win by the larger margin that the current table suggests.

Due to the deterioration of Arsenal and Newcastle, Chelsea and Tottenham have a considerable lead in the race for the Champions League places: if they take the same number of points from their remaining fixtures as last season (which would mean performing worse than they have so far), the teams below would have to take a significant amount of points more from their remaining fixtures than they managed last season to have a chance of catching them.

In the fight to avoid relegation, it currently appears to be a battle between six clubs, though it can be argued that West Ham are likely to continue to take more points from their fixtures than Wolves did last season. Reading and Southampton, however, have taken around the same number of points from their fixtures as Bolton and Blackburn did last season, so are very much embroiled in a relegation battle with Wigan, Aston Villa and QPR.

To see how each club has performed over the course of the season so far, go to the ’Season Comparison’ links at the top of the page and select a club from the drop-down menu.

I discovered earlier in the season that Simon Gleave of Infostrada Sports has also been collating data based on this method, so for further fixture performance analysis, follow him here.

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